As conference play rages on, we continue to learn more about each college basketball team.
The competition has been fierce this season with plenty of worthy contenders building strong cases to be NCAA Tournament and National Championship contenders. There appears to be two clear top teams as of this writing, Duke and Auburn, but the NCAA Tournament doesn’t necessarily crown the best team.
However, there are some ways to position you, dear bettor, to find the team’s best suited to win all six (or seven if you are in the First Four) of the ‘Big Dance.’
Let me explain.
KenPom, the advanced metric website that is gospel for college basketball bettors, has been compiling stats since 1999, which you can find here.
Over the past two-plus decades, KenPom has become the market maker for college basketball; the website's metrics also help indicate overall team quality. There is the team’s overall adjusted efficiency metric as well as one for offense and defense (among others) that is a catch-all metric for how to rate teams.
Dating back to 2002, all but two teams have been inside KenPom's adjusted offensive and defensive metrics top 20. The teams that win it all are not only elite but are balanced and able to win in different ways more times than not.
The two teams that didn’t are 2014 Connecticut, paced by a sensational run from Shabazz Napier, and 2021 Baylor, who had a mid-season blip that weighed down the team’s overall rating.
We have plenty of time before the bracket is revealed, but if you are starting to ramp up your Futures portfolio, this is a great place to start and track as we continue to get more data on each team.
Below, you will find three different segments I have created for teams. First, the teams that are inside the 20-20 threshold as of followed by teams that are just outside of it with top 40 metrics on each side of the ball. After that, I’ll explain some of the lopsided teams that may make for high-variance outcomes in an NCAA Tournament setting.
Remember, this is an ever-changing list, don't get married to what you've seen too much, and be prepared to pivot as more data comes in. As the season continues, the numbers do become more sticky as teams are more static and entrenched in its season-long data. With that in mind, this article will be updated weekly to reflect the past seven days of results.
Let's set the table for the rest of the college basketball season with a look at my three filters.
2025 National Championship Favorites
Team
Record
KenPom Rank
Bracket Matrix Projected Seed
KenPom AdjO
KenPom AdjD
Natty Odds
Duke
17-2
1
1
6
3
430
Auburn
18-1
2
1
1
11
430
Houston
16-3
3
4
11
2
900
Iowa State
17-2
4
1
10
6
900
Florida
18-2
5
2
2
15
1700
Last week, Illinois and Arizona were part of this group, but have since slipped out, leaving these six teams as the teams that would track as National Championship-worthy teams at this point in the season.
Over the last week, the biggest news is that Johni Broome returned from an ankle injury for Auburn. The Tigers big man and Wooden Award candidate buoyed the SEC leaders to a 53-51 win at home on Saturday night against Tennessee, scoring 16 points to go with 13 rebounds and four blocks.
The Auburn defense had slipped without Broome but soared near the top 10 on the heels of the dominant effort against Tennessee.
However, the team appears to still be a bit behind Duke when assessing title equity. While the two teams share the shortest odds on the board, Cooper Flagg and co. reaffirmed its standing as the best team in the country over the weekend, suffocating Wake Forest en route to a 63-56 road win.
2025 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Contenders
Team
Record
KenPom Rank
Bracket Matrix Projected Seed
KenPom AdjO
KenPom AdjD
Natty Odds
Purdue
16-2
8
3
8
22
4500
Illinois
14-6
10
4
25
12
3500
Michigan
14-5
18
5
15
34
5500
Michigan State
17-2
15
2
22
18
4000
Arizona
13-6
17
6
16
26
4500
Tennessee
17-3
6
2
34
1
1500
Texas Tech
15-4
11
7
12
27
3500
Marquette
17-3
12
2
26
13
3000
Maryland
16-5
21
9
20
24
10000
St. Mary’s
18-3
24
10
30
28
15000
Texas A&M
15-5
16
4
39
9
5500
Kansas
14-5
7
3
31
4
2500
Mississippi State
16-4
23
4
18
35
5500
These are the teams on the doorstep of fitting the historical criteria of a National Champion, top 40 on both sides of the ball.
Illinois slides down into this group this week as the team tries to navigate the loss of impact big man Tomislav Ivisic. The 7'1" rim protector was missed dearly in the team's blowout home loss against Maryland due to an illness. For now, the Fighting Illini appear to be more of a fringe contender when not at full capacity.
Speaking of Maryland, the Terps continue to put together quality results, finishing the Midwest road trip with a thrilling win at Indiana in the final seconds. The Terps have a formidable front line with a two-big lineup of freshman sensation Derik Queen (15 points and eight rebounds) as well as senior Julian Reese (13 points, nine rebounds).
The Big Ten is full of quality clubs that should make for plenty of high-level games down the stretch of the season with the likes of Purdue, Michigan, and Michigan State part of this group of title hopefuls. Can the Big Ten use the tests of conference play to prepare for a March Madness run? There are plenty of teams building resumes that look the part so far.
2025 NCAA Tournament Upset Candidates
Team
Record
KenPom Rank
Bracket Matrix Projected Seed
KenPom AdjO
KenPom AdjD
Natty Odds
Kentucky
14-5
22
3
2
84
3000
Alabama
17-3
9
1
3
43
1300
Gonzaga
15-6
13
8
4
58
3500
UConn
14-6
36
7
9
132
5500
Villanova
12-9
54
N/A
13
180
25000
Wisconsin
16-4
14
5
7
50
7500
Baylor
13-6
26
8
14
61
7500
BYU
13-6
31
10
17
63
20000
Pittsburgh
16-4
34
10
19
71
20000
Cincinnati
12-7
53
N/A
137
14
30000
St. John’s
17-3
19
6
55
5
5000
UC-Irvine
18-3
57
11
191
7
50000
San Diego State
13-5
37
10
112
8
25000
UCLA
14-6
33
8
66
16
15000
Georgia
14-6
41
9
79
20
15000
West Virginia
13-6
38
6
111
19
20000
VCU
16-4
35
12
74
17
25000
Ole Miss
15-5
20
5
44
10
10000
There are plenty of lopsided teams on this list, over reliant on one side of the ball.
These teams are fickle come NCAA Tournament time as matchups can lead to incredibly volatile outcomes. Take Alabama for example, who appears on this list with a similar analytic profile to last year's Final Four team.
The Crimson Tide offense is explosive, able to score 100 on a given night, but if the team runs into an elite defense and has a cold shooting night, it can't rely on its defense to save the day. Last season, the team ran hot in the postseason to the semifinal game, but if the team can't round into form on defense, it may be ripe for an early exit.
These are teams that struggle on one side of the floor, and while Alabama has its flaws, Kentucky and UConn appear to be worse versions of that idea.
Trendy names for sure, both the Wildcats and Huskies appear primed for disappointing March Madness runs with their inability to get stops. Look at last Saturday as an indicator, as the team lost closely lined games on the road to inferior opponents due to poor defense.
At the same time, these can be teams that are underpriced in a one-off market. I typically like to circle the mid-major teams that may be double-digit seeds come March as ones that can be a matchup nightmare for a "better" team.
The betting market has wised up to this idea as these are typically trendy teams that can hang their hat on one side of the ball, like the ones listed above, but it's good to note as possible teams that are so volatile that a deep run is also possible if the offense spikes for a few games.